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|本期目录/Table of Contents|

基于 VAR 模型的全生命期房地产限购政策评价及实证——以厦门市为例()

《工程管理学报》[ISSN:/CN:]

期数:
2017年04期
页码:
148-153
栏目:
房地产经济与管理
出版日期:
2017-08-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evaluation and Empirical Research on the Life-Cycle Home BuyingRestriction Policy of Real Estate Based on VAR Model——A Case Study of Xiamen
文章编号/Paper ID:
1674-8859(2017)04-148-06
作者:
沈 强 周 红 张东杰
1,2. 厦门大学 建筑与土木工程学院;3. 内蒙古科技大学 土木工程学院
Author(s):
SHEN Qiang ZHOU Hong ZHANG Dong-jie
1,2. School of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Xiamen University;3. School of Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology
关键词:
限购政策向量自回归模型脉冲响应全生命期限购重启
Keywords:
home buying restriction policyVAR modelimpulse responselife cyclerestarting home buying restriction policy
DOI:
10.13991/j.cnki.jem.2017.04.027
摘要:
通过构建 VAR 模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解和 JJ 协整检验,从全寿命期的角度分析了房地产限购政策执行及取消、货币供应量、住房贷款利率、房地产开发投资率对厦门房地产市场的动态影响,并为限购重启提供建议与借鉴。结果显示:房屋限购在短期并不能有效抑制房价上涨,长期能较好地给厦门房地产市场降温;限购取消在短期并不能给房地产市场升温,但长期将导致房价报复性上涨;房地产市场普遍存在“适应性预期”,厦门房价调控关键在于调节消费者和投资者的心理预期。
Abstract:
This article builds VAR model and uses impulse response,variance decomposition and JJ co-integration test toanalyze the dynamic influence of implementation and cancellation of home buying restriction policy,money supply,housing loaninterest rate,real estate development investment rate on Xiamen real estate market from the point of view of life cycle,andprovide suggestions and reference to restart home buying restriction policy. The results show that:home buying restriction cannoteffectively curb rising housing prices in short term,but in long term can cool well the real estate market in Xiamen;cancellationof home buying restriction in short term cannot warm the real estate market,but in long term will lead to retaliatory priceincreases;real estate market commonly exists "Adaptive Expectations",so the key to Xiamen housing price control is to adjustthe psychological expectations of consumers and investors.

中图分类号/Chinese Library Classification:

F293.3

文献标识码/Document Code:

A

参考文献/References

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-01-29.
基金项目:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271180).
作者简介:
沈 ? 强(1993-),硕士研究生,研究方向:房地产开发与经营,可持续建筑,BIM;
周 ? 红(1973-),通讯作者,女,博士,佐治亚理工学院博士后,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:信息技术,建筑管理与房地产经济;
张东杰(1993-),硕士研究生,研究方向:建筑节能,绿色建筑。
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